Wind chills stay up today, and may be worse than what we saw 24 hours ago. Ironically, air temperatures will actually be better today as the winds turn to the south, and bring slightly warmer air in. We need to emphasize “slightly”. We will continue to be under an arctic air mass right on into the first half of the weekend. Temps will not moderate until Sunday, when they return to normal. Another quick moving clipper system can bring additional snow to the northern part of the state overnight tonight into tomorrow, although amounts will mostly be under an inch. That little clipper takes winds back north for your Friday…and we feel that high temps on Friday may actually rival yesterday, as will overnight lows. Wind chills can be 15-25 below zero through at least midday today. High temps will be in the teens over most of the state, but back in the single digits to low teens tomorrow. Overnight lows tonight stay at zero or above in most areas, but go back below zero tomorrow night.
Our next precipitation maker still is on track for Monday and Tuesday, and will bring up to .25”-.45” liquid equivalent to areas from US 24 southward. Temps should be in that 32-37 degree range where the precipitation is falling, which leads me to lean toward a rain/wet snow mix with little accumulation. However, if temps stumble even just a bit…we could see a slushy mess very easily. Colder temps Monday and Tuesday up north mean any fringe action will likely be light snow flurry action. Mostly dry the rest of the week, with temps holding with in a few degrees of normal, but likely to the lower side of normal.
A strong front holds on the latest model imagery for late next weekend into Martin Luther King Day. We have a concern of this system coming through in two pieces…the first piece with warm enough air to produce quarter to half inch rains, and then a second
piece, delayed just a bit, in the colder air that can pack a decent snow wallop. We really want to see how models handle this system as they move it into the 7 day forecast window…but it does look promising for moisture, and it could be promising for snow as well. Behind that system, temps drop hard with another arctic high that moves in. This high should be equivalent to what we have worked through over the past few days, and should keep temperatures below to well below normal through the end of the month into February.
Weather that Impacts CORN:
Nice rains through the next 10 days in central and northern corn areas in Argentina. WE should see at least 2-4 inches from northern BA and northern Cordoba up through the rest of corn Country to near the Paraguay border. Farther south, models show lesser rains for southern Cordoba and LaPampa, but we still see up to an inch in those regions. So…trouble should not be an issue for Argentina corn. Temps will be normal to above normal, perhaps in the low to mid 90s through the weekend, but then pull back as we get more widespread rains to develop.
The extended period in Argentina shows more rain in the heaviest hit areas from the 10 day, but of more interest is better rains up to 2 inches down through southern areas.
Corn areas continue to show good rains over the next two weeks from 2-5 inches from Parana south through RGDS. The model map at right shows no problem for any corn areas except for perhaps a little concern in Bahia. Temps will be warm, but with adequate moisture around from several fronts, we should not see a run away on high temps.
Cold air eases in the Corn Belt going into next week. Areas south of I-70 see up to half an inch of rain Monday-Tuesday, and we think it will be mostly rain. Only northern most areas may have to deal with wet snow. Longer term, the US Corn Belt will see potentially heavy precipitation of half to 1 inch ore more from the 18th-20th. There is still a question as to how much will be rain and how much snow. Arctic air will follow.
10 day maps show some holes in moisture, but still a general batch of scattered showers and thunderstorms for the period. Longer term, a 15 day map shows most bean areas getting at least a ninch, and in spots much more. This is not the kind of “dryness” that really creates stressful results in soybeans. Could some areas be happier with more? Sure. But does the dryness automatically mean we have problems? Definitely not. Heat has not been as bad as feared in many places to this point, and so you have to look at the models and say perjhaps the heat is being overblown in the next week.
HRW areas see temps moderate as we move into the weekend. We should see normal to perhaps above normal temps from the weekend through next week. Good moisture around the 17th-18th will miss a large part of western KS, western OK and the TX high plains. Eastern locations still are primed to get half an inch or more. We will lose most of our snow cover in these areas through next week. So, if our arctic high to finish the month does move back in, there will be talk of winter kill once more as a large part of the crop will be exposed.
SRW areas get adequate moisture in the weeks ahead, and as long as the system for the 18th-20th features some snow…there will be good protection on the crop.