Believe it or not, the end is in sight for this brutal cold snap. Temps today will rival what we saw back on Wednesday, and wind chills will be brutal as well. However…as long as we can make it to Sunday, we will see some relief. Snow moves out of the area early this morning, but winds will stay up through the day. We will see some 20-40 mph winds hold through mid morning, and then 12-25 mph winds will be the norm through the rest of the day. That will put wind chills in the 15-25 degrees below zero range, if not colder. Blowing snow will be an issue through most of the day over the northern half of the state. Look for lowered visibilities. Actual air temps will hold in the single digits to low teens, and we will fall to 2 to 12 below overnight tonight. Above right is a wind chill map for midnight tonight.
Cold air puts in one more day tomorrow, although we will be slightly (ever so slightly) warmer. Then on Sunday we bump temps up to the mid 20s to low 30s. Our system for early next week is on track for Monday into Tuesday. Models still prefer a mostly south track, but we think it foolish to rule out precipitation anywhere. Over the southern half to 2/3rds of the state, we are still leaning toward liquid precipitation (rain) although temps will not be all that warm. Up north, light snow and flurries will be more likely. The rest of the week will be mostly dry. Temps hold in the upper 20s to low 30s north up to the lower 40s south. This map is of 7AM Monday morning
A strong front should move into the state around the 19th-20th. This system has been all over the place since models first keyed on it a little over a week ago. Timing has held, while intensity has wavered. At this point, we like a stronger storm with rain followed by snow. This system should bring down another arctic high that holds through the end of the month. WE continue to see a deep trough digging in over the desert SW around the
22nd-23rd…which would aid in bringing arctic air into the great lakes and OH valley. We still like .25”-.75” liquid equivalents out of the system for the 19th-20th.
Weather that Impacts CORN:
We feel like a broken record here, but in general, we see no trouble spots in South American corn production areas. A little bit of net drying settles in through the weekend and early next week in southern Cordoba and LaPampa in Argentina, but the rest of Argentina’s Corn Belt gets rain from late Sunday through Tuesday. A stronger system later in the period (end of next week into the following week) brings rains to southern parts of the belt. So, we will hold onto at least 2-4 inches in the central north and 1-2 inches in the southern growing region over the next two weeks combined. Temps will be in the upper 80s to mid 90s through the weekend, but should pull back, to the mid 80s and low 90s next week. Overnight lows will generally be in the 60s and 70s. .
Southern Brazil corn areas will see 2 nice fronts between now and the 21st. These fronts should yield 2-5 inch rain totals.
The entire US Corn Belt gets closer to normal on temps next week. Rains to start the week hit mostly the southern half of the Corn Belt, from I-70 southward. WE like half inch or less rains, coverage at 70%. The biggest question will be “all rain” vs. “rain ending as snow.” We like mostly rain, with snow, if it happens anywhere, limited to areas along and just north of I-70. Any warming in the Corn Belt will be short lived, as we see significant arctic air coming in after the 21st.
South African Corn production areas continue to see scattered, timely rains. There look to be no weather related production problems in the next 2 weeks, with rains up to 1 inch, coverage around 80%. Rains will not come all at once, and will be scattered form day to day. Temps at or slightly above normal.
Harvest is ramping up somewhat in western and northern Brazil bean areas. To that end, weather looks decent for harvest through the enxt 10 days. Moisture will be around, but will be scattered. WE like 10 day totals of half an inch or less, but are bumping coverage to 60%. This meains we should see mostly suitable moisture for any 2nd crop corn planting that is going ont. Heat continues to be relegated mostly to coastal and not agriculture areas. The 12-16 day forecast window is still wetter than the short term, but we are scaling our forecast back to hafl to 1.5”, taking out some of the heavier hit areas. .
The main change in our outlook for HRW areas has to do with the variability in temps. We see a lot more up and down of temps from day to day over the next week to 10 days. Warmer air ridging in the west will battle with the cold air trough that wants to park over the east. The western HRW areas will be in the crosshairs. The worst consequence of this will be two-fold. 1) We expect to see most snow cover go away over the next week or so. 2) The up and down will provide mixed messages for wheat as well. Now, most of HRW has adequate moisture and is in decent health, but our concern over bitter cold arctic air sometime after the 21st/22nd should be noted. We wont jump on the winter kill bandwagon like it seems everyone else does (after all, how many times can you really kill wheat, anyway?), but you can rest assured that we will see that headline making the rounds again in a couple of weeks.
No change in SRW areas. We have decent moisture in the weeks ahead from at least 2 systems, slightly moderating temperatures, but the bulk of the snow north of I-70 should stick around. That means we still should have at least some blanket of protection as the next arctic blast arrives later in the month.
Cold air holds over northern areas, and in large dairy areas like WI, MN, IA, IL and IN, we will see generally temps at or below normal. In large beef production areas out west, we will see some susceptibility to wilder temp changes, which may impact rate of gain and overall production. However, we do not see much in the next two weeks that would give concern over transportation issues. Short term, there still will be high levels of animal stress due to bitter wind chills today, and well below normal temps tomorrow.