On Wednesday, the USDA will release its monthly supply and demand report. The December report has historically not been a market mover. Bill Gentry, with Risk Management Commodities in Lafayette, says there could be some changes, “As a result of the EPA ruling on biofuels, we could see an increase in demand. The doubling of biodiesel by 2017 may move the needle on this report.” Overall, he added the report is not likely to be a major market factor.
Gentry says outside market factors are likely to have more of a market impact that the USDA report, “The value of the dollar will likely be a bigger factor when it comes to demand for corn and soybeans. A weaker dollar along with lower prices will likely stimulate export demand.” Monday’s trade saw a selloff in soybeans despite an export number that exceeded market expectations.
Overall, Gentry does not see the market making a major move lower until possibly January when we get the final USDA report on the 2015 crop, “I do not see us moving much lower between now and Christmas.” He added that the January final numbers on the 2015 crop from USDA will need to be carefully watched.
You can get Wednesday’s numbers, market reaction, and analysis here at HAT.