Seasonal temps hold through the rest of the week, but a colder push comes this weekend.
Before we get there, though, we will watch as a weak little wave passes by to the south later tonight and tomorrow. This system brings moisture to the Deep South and the TN valley…and I really do not look for much up in our neck of the woods. But…over running cloud cover can spread in from I-70 southward later today and tomorrow and we have to keep an eye out for spits and sprinkles. I doubt anything happens, but on the odd chance a few of the clouds are a bit more moisture laden…a trace to a few hundredths is at least minutely possible in extreme southern IN. Either way…rain or no rain, it will have a gray, damp feel to it from tonight through tomorrow.
Dry for Friday into the weekend. However, a Canadian cold front sweeps through Saturday and will drop temps again. This time, we go below normal and stay there for a bit. Next week, we see temps bouncing just a bit, but we still look for a normal to below normal bias on through the end of the month.
Models continue to have disagreement over the next big event. The GFS tries to bring moisture out of the central plains into the Corn Belt early next week, but the European keeps it farther south. We like the southern solution, mostly due to it fitting with the precipitation pattern so far. With a very dry atmospheric profile over most of the corn belt…it will take a more moisture laden system from the NW, or a strong thunderstorm system from the SW to put good moisture back in over Indiana. This early week system next week is neither. So we look for it to push by to the south. Late next week, a front may try and push in from the west. There could be some .25” -.75” rain potential in there…but there is also plenty of time for things to change.
The long range GFS continues to show a strong heavy rain system in for the 30th and 31st. That has some potential to gain traction, but for now, we will stay more conservative, as there are multiple model solutions being floated. If the storm stays, though, this would be one of the years where March came in like a lion, and decided to leave like one too.
Precipitation action in Argentina the rest of the week looks to be dominated by clusters of thunderstorms in localized areas. This goes along with the warmer air that is in play…and likely we are seeing some heat based thunderstorm clusters developing. Coverage on any given day will be under 20% of the crop areas, but putting several days together, we can see 50% coverage of action from half to 1 inch. Next week starts off dry with high pressure sitting just off the Buenos Aires coast, but we have some showers and storms that work in behind as that high moves away the second half of next week. Temps remain above normal this week into the weekend, but should pull back to near normal next week. .
Areas from Parana southward get nothing but scattered showers from now through next Wednesday. The second half of next week, we see better organized rains moving in from the south, and should give all south and southeast Brazil areas half to 1.5” rains.
There will be attempts by moisture to come out of the central and southern plains over the next few days. However, most action that originates in that part of the country will have a tough time getting going in the Corn Belt. We continue to see most moisture between now and late week next week passing by south of the OH river. Now, late next week models are showing a decent front working into the western Corn Belt, stretching up to and even slightly north of I-80. This may be the next best precipitation threat for the region. Temps will dominate the talk more, with normal to below normal temps through the end of the month over the eastern corn belt, normal to a bit above normal temps the next couple of days over the western corn belt. A secondary push of Canadian air will move in this weekend.
China continues to see a similar pattern to yesterday…which means plentiful action over the southern quarter to third of grain growing regions, but way below normal precipitation farther north. Wheat areas in northern China are very dry, and we see no precipitation over the next two weeks. Temps are mostly above normal, which may start people talking about potential of early plant in China the way it’s been thrown around here already on occasion.
No change in the pattern over Brazil bean areas. A nice corridor of moisture is setting up from Sao Paulo across through Matto Grosso. Rains will be hit and miss from day today, but we see 10 day totals in the 1-3 inch range. Coverage will be nearly 100% in that corridor. That does mean that we see dramatically less moisture in Matto Grosso do Sul…which will help with bean harvest there. In general, the pattern looks skewed toward the wetter side…but still is running in the realm of normal for Brazil.
At least 1-3 more inches of rain coming to the lower Mississippi Valley and the Deep South over the coming 10 days. Planting delays will continue to come to the forefront. While not a big story…it is something we are hearing more about. There really is no sign of a change in this current moisture pattern.
Scattered moisture this morning in OK, much more organized moisture over the eastern half of TX. We are seeing some radar echoes over southern KS…but nothing that says there is a lot of moisture around. Going forward…action between now and Friday looks ho hum over most of the HRW areas from KS northward. However, there will be decent moisture over the southern parts of the plains. Low pressure currently in north central CO will shift south through the day today and may trigger some precipitation over KS and OK tomorrow into Friday. Amounts are still all over the place, but likely will only be meaningful in a few places. The one thing that may make it a bit better would be if we can get any thunderstorms to fire off…those would have potential to increase precipitation on a local scale. Still…we like rain totals only up to a third of an inch with coverage at 40%. That’s better than we were thinking yesterday, but still, not that good.
SRW areas play the north v. south game again today. Moisture still looks great over the lower Delta and up into the southern parts of the OH valley…so southern wheat should have plenty of moisture. Farther north, moisture will be more hard to come by. We may not see any serious rains over northern SRW areas until later next week. Temps are nearly normal now and will stay that way through Friday, but will go below normal over the weekend and stay in that normal to below range for most of the rest of the month.
The best moisture is settling south over Russian grain areas. We see good moisture over the next week to 10 days in southern parts of the Southern Region…but lesser rains now over northern areas and Ukraine. The pattern still seems to be one that features sagging systems with light moisture spread west to east. We need the pattern to switch to a west-east flow with strong fronts coming out of Eastern Europe to get good rains back in. For now, the month of March looks to finish below normal on precipitation, and above normal on temperatures.
A nice front toward days 8-9 in the 10 day period brings excellent rains to Western Australia. WE see rain potential of half to 1 inch or better over all Western Australia wheat acres. Better rains also emerge next week in NWS and Victoria, although coverage of wheat acres will be limited to about 60%. Rain totals there can be up to half an inch. The key here will be getting the fronts to hold together until we get into the later stages of next week.
There is potential for a little mud in isolated areas over the next few days in beef production areas. However, conditions in the central plains are dry enough that it likely will not be a big issue and also, we think producers will put up with it in order to just get the moisture. Temps in beef areas will remain mostly above normal. No major problems are seen in the next two weeks. Dairy areas, especially in the upper Midwest and great lakes regions, will see colder than normal temps come in this weekend and we should remain in that normal to below range through most of the rest of the month.
No major weather headlines for hogs…temps near normal, perhaps a little dry. But nothing that produces a big impact.