A little moisture around today, tonight and early tomorrow over the Hoosier state. How much and where depends on what model you choose to believe. We are leaving our forecast completely alone, keeping most threats of moisture south into extreme southern Indiana, and actually, we look for most of the rains to stay south of the OH River. That being said…we will allow for a bit of action up into southern IN, with a few hundredths to perhaps a tenth scattered about. Coverage will be limited to about 20%. Where things get interesting is for early Friday morning, as the European tries to bring very minor moisture as far north as northern Indiana. We don’t really think this is a very accurate representation of the moisture potential…but it bears mentioning, as it may lead to more clouds than anything else.
Temps actually work to above normal levels as we go into Saturday. But, a cold front sweeps through Saturday night and will take temps below normal for Sunday and then stay normal to below normal for most of next week. Just to give an idea of what this air mass can do…high temps in eastern ND will be in the lower 50s today…and likely go to 32 for a high by Saturday. We will see similar, but not quite as bad of changes here from Saturday to Monday.
Next week we still have a good chance for moisture to arrive. Timing is the sticking point at this time. The European model has bumped up timing a bit brining action in Wednesday night. We still like a Thursday time frame. But, there is plenty of time to tweak that in the days ahead. Moisture amounts still look to be between .2” and .8”, with coverage at about 80% of the state. Any moisture that develops in a night time scenario might have to be watched for wet snowflake potential…but if I am right and models are wrong…this should be mostly a daytime event.
Following that system, we see temps staying mostly below normal through the end of the month. In fact, we see impressive cold blasts for the 29th-31st with a bit of rain, and then another well below normal cold shot for around the 2nd. A strong rain maker may try and move in around the 4th-5th, coming in out of the central plains.
Only scattered shower and thunderstorm action in Argentina from today through next Tuesday. From midweek on next week a cold front works through bringing better organized rains. We look for half to 1.5” rains next week. Temps finish this week at or above normal, but should pull back some next week. High pressure comes in behind the front next week and should promote slightly drier air for the turn of the month.
Following on the heels of the Argentina, front, in Brazil, we also see very little organized precipitation now through midweek next week from Parana southward. Later next week, that front comes north out of Argentina and brings some moisture with it. We continue to look for half to 1.5” rains in south and southeast Brazil corn areas.
Moisture has set up this morning over the OH valley and is working back through southern IL and into central MO as well. Action is very light. As expected, the good moisture is down over KY and the Deep South. Moisture over the next 5-7 days will largely miss the Corn Belt. However, the pattern kicks up a few notches from mid to late week next week through the end of the month. There can be a front that produces half to three quarter inch moisture over the Corn Belt late next week, then 2 more systems through early April that can add to that. Coverage will be around 70%. The moisture will not be enough to bring the entire month of March up to normal, but will be a nice finish to the month.
No changes in the China precipitation pattern this morning…wet in the south, dry in the north. We also do not see any significant frontal action coming toward the northern part of the Chinese grain belt through early April…so in general, we continue to be concerned over dryness for corn and bean planting, and especially for wheat areas.
The pattern looks pretty solid in Brazil bean areas, with plenty of moisture moving over the region, coming across from the coast into Matto Grosso. In this corridor, we continue to see good 1-3 inch rain totals. To the south, lesser amounts with Matto Grosso do Sul picking up half an inch or less in the same period. Temps look to be normal to slightly above.
It’s raining this morning in the Lower Mississippi Valley, and we will see more rain out of at least 2 systems in the weeks ahead. Rain totals from now through the end of the month will be at least 1-3 with coverage at 80%….we would also look for the higher end of the range in many places. Planting delays continue for those early Deep South beans.
Scattered showers this morning over parts of HRW area, but nothing is really all that impressive. The key will be what tries to kick of later today…will there be any thunderstorm potential in that mix? Does the rain work north into KS, or stay mostly south? We really see no major changes, with action today and tomorrow pretty much in line with our thoughts from yesterday. There will be decent moisture over the southern parts of the plains. Low pressure in north east NM will start to kick out to the east today, bringing rains to OK and TX, and some into KS as well. We still are concerned that the heart of the action tries to bypass KS, though. We like rain totals only up to a third of an inch with coverage at 40%.
SRW areas in the south are getting rain today. Northern areas likely end up with clouds, although some models are brining slightly better light rain chances in for tonight and early tomorrow morning. We look for rain totals along and south of the OH River to be half inch or more. Northern rains, if they happen at all, will be best characterized as “spits and sprinkles.” A stronger front is on the way for midweek next week over all areas, and it could bring up to 1 inch of rain. Then two more systems can pop up to finish the month and start April.
The best moisture is settling south over Russian grain areas. We see good moisture over the next week to 10 days in southern parts of the Southern Region…but lesser rains now over northern areas and Ukraine. The pattern still seems to be one that features sagging systems with light moisture spread west to east. We need the pattern to switch to a west-east flow with strong fronts coming out of Eastern Europe to get good rains back in. For now, the month of March looks to finish below normal on precipitation, and above normal on temperatures.
A nice front toward days 8-9 in the 10 day period brings excellent rains to Western Australia. WE see rain potential of half to 1 inch or better over all Western Australia wheat acres. Better rains also emerge next week in NWS and Victoria, although coverage of wheat acres will be limited to about 60%. Rain totals there can be up to half an inch. The key here will be getting the fronts to hold together until we get into the later stages of next week.