Temperatures exceeded expectations over a large part of the state yesterday. Today, temps will be held in check a little more over the southern half of the state by moisture that is surging up into the region. We look for rains today over the southern third of the state, with totals up to .3”. Once you get north of Bloomington, there likely will be limited moisture and north of I-70, we should see decent sun all day. For that reason, we look for northern areas to be more above normal on temps than southern areas, just due to more sun exposure.
Dry state wide for tomorrow and Thursday, with temps well above normal. We look for temps in the mid 50s to mid 60s. Overnight lows will likely stay above freezing as well over most of the state.
Another slug of rain moves in overnight Thursday night through Friday. This system shows no major change from our thoughts 24 hours ago. We will see rain coverage at 60-70% of the state, with a range of .1”-.8”. The axis of heaviest rains will be along a line from Fort Wayne to Terre Haute. In that area we can see the high end of the range. The moisture will come slow and steady for the most part, meaning we do not expect to have major flooding. However, in areas where the snowmelt has been most impressive, this will add to localized ponding pretty easy.
This weekend looks dry and slightly cooler. Temps pull back closer to normal, but really do not go much below normal. We see another system coming up from the southwest for late on the 19th and 20th. There will be mostly rain involved here again, and we look for that system to bring in a colder push through the 22nd. This colder push will take temps below normal, but likely still in the upper 30s and 40s….a far cry from the brutal cold of last week. The extended period also shows the active precipitation pattern continuing through at least the 25th. Each system may not have tons of moisture, but we will see a much wetter time frame than most of the state sees here over the next few days.
Argentina sees a front move through late this week through the weekend that brings half to 1 inch rains to 70% of corn areas, and then a front stalls late next week over southern Cordoba and southern Buenos Aires province. That front can bring an other half to 1 inch. Mostly dry for the rest of the period.
Moisture is basically done over most of South and southeast Brazil as of this morning. There are some showers and storms lingering over Sao Paulo today and they may take until later tomorrow to completely leave, but in general, there is a drier trend trying to emerge over southern Matto Grosso do Sul, Parana and areas down through RGDS. This dry trend holds until late next Monday and Tuesday, when showers and storms are back and can bring half to 1 inch rain totals.
South and eastern parts of the US corn belt are in line to get some rains off an on over the next 10 days to 2 weeks. IN, OH, KY, along with southern IL and southern MO will see half to 2 inch rains. Farther north and west, very little moisture is coming in over the short haul. Temps will be 10-20 degrees above normal through the end of the week, but then closer to normal next week. Snowmelt can provide anywhere from 1-3 inches of water for the rest of the week, which will be needed in western parts of the Corn Belt where rains miss.
A slow moving frontal complex moves across Brazil soy areas through the rest of the week, with the highest frequency rains coming from late Wednesday through Saturday. In this timeframe, we can see quarter to half inch totals each day, and the next 7 days can see rain totals at or above 2 inches. We should see a drier pattern emerge starting Sunday and continuing most of next week, with the exception being western Matto Grosso…scattered to spotty rains may hang around locally through the week next week, but will not be part of a bigger pattern.
Heavy rains are still a concern here in the Deep South as we move toward planting of early beans here in a few weeks. 2-4 inches of rain are likely in the next 10 days, and we can see that wet pattern continue in the 11-16 day period. Not a big story right now, but may become more newsworthy as the month rolls on.
No change in the overall pattern. Most of HRW areas are warm and dry through the next 10 days, and the next good chance of precipitation may not develop until closer to the 20th. However, in east TX and OK, we do see heavier rains in the short term with 3 systems between now and the 19th. This will help east and southeast HRW areas.
SRW areas continue to be divided north from south. Northern areas see combined 10 day rains from a tenth to half an inch. Southern SRW areas will be more in the half to 2 inch range. Temps above normal this week. Near normal next week, below normal after the 19th.
Ukraine sees 10 day rain totals from half to 1 inch. Farther east, other parts of Western Russia and FSU areas are seeing lesser amounts. The totals are similar to what we saw yesterday, but we are seeing rains hold together better coming out of Eastern Europe as they come into Ukraine. This gradual shift in pattern should bring slightly better rains eventually into Russian growing regions, but for now, we keep them drier at half an inch or less for the entire 10 day period. Kazakhstan also looks to stay dry, especially in the west. Temps well above normal.
In Australia, models suggest slightly better rains in Western Australia, but lesser rains in NSW over the 10 day period. In general, the changes are not enough for us to change our forecast, and the trend is still drier than we would like as we move toward planting in a few weeks.
Normal to above normal temps for most cattle areas this week and next Heavy rains miss beef production areas in the central plains, but may impact feedyards in east Texas. Dairy areas stay dry, but warmer than normal.
No major issues in hog areas, although we will see more moisture over OH valley areas in the next 10 days. Large snow melt equals mud…but not enough to make major headlines, as the bulk of hog areas had been drier than normal going into the heavy snows, and the soil profile will soak up moisture readily.