High pressure gives another warm day today with south wind flow up the backside of the high.
There really is no change in the short term forecast either, with a nice slug of rain moving in over the state from tomorrow through the first half of Saturday. This rain will be the heaviest from US 24 southward, but will actually end up hitting about 75% of the state, an improvement in coverage over the past 24 hours. Rain totals will be from a tenth to nearly an inch, with the heaviest over the southern half of the state.
Air stays warm in the wake of this system, and we will see Sunday and even Monday be well above normal. Temps may even push into the lower 60s on Monday up to the Michigan line.
Colder air comes behind a front for next Tuesday. This front comes out of a Canadian low that travels across the great lakes. Precipiation will be minor, and will mostly be confined to the northern third of the state Tuesday, with up to a tenth or two possible. However the colder air begins to work in behind for the second half of next week and will actually max out around the 20th and 21st. That will be right about when another frontal boundary sweeps through bringing rain, and perhaps a bit of wet snow to the north We are still looking for temps to be much warmer than the last cold snap, though. Temps will be from the upper 30s to mid 40s at the coldest part of the airmass, which will equate to about 10 degrees below normal.
The extended period shows a couple more systems workint ghroughy from the 21st to the 26th. Rains from those systems will likely be under half an inch.
Argentina sees a front move through late this week through the weekend that brings half to 1 inch rains to 70% of corn areas, and then a front stalls late next week over southern Cordoba and southern Buenos Aires province. That front can bring an other half to 1 inch. Mostly dry for the rest of the period.
A drier trend has started to emerge over southern Matto Grosso do Sul, Parana and areas down through RGDS. This dry trend holds until late next Monday and Tuesday, when showers and storms are back and can bring half to 1 inch rain totals.
South and eastern parts of the US corn belt are in line to get some rains off an on over the next 10 days to 2 weeks. IN, OH, KY, along with southern IL and southern MO will see half to 2 inch rains. Farther north and west, very little moisture is coming in over the short haul. Temps will be 10-20 degrees above normal through the end of the week, but then closer to normal next week. Snowmelt can provide anywhere from 1-3 inches of water for the rest of the week, which will be needed in western parts of the Corn Belt where rains miss.
A slow moving frontal complex moves across Brazil soy areas through the rest of the week, with the highest frequency rains coming from late tonight through Saturday. In this timeframe, we can see quarter to half inch totals each day, and the next 7 days can see rain totals at or above 2 inches. We should see a drier pattern emerge starting Sunday and continuing most of next week, with the exception being western Matto Grosso…scattered to spotty rains may hang around locally through the week next week, but will not be part of a bigger pattern.
Heavy rains are still a concern here in the Deep South as we move toward planting of early beans here in a few weeks. The first big batch of rain is done, but we see two more systems in the next 10 days that come through, and they can bring another 1-3 inches of rain for the period. We also are trending toward a continuation of the wet pattern for the 11-16 day period.
No change in the overall pattern. Most of HRW areas are warm and dry through the next 10 days, and the next good chance of precipitation may not develop until closer to the 20th. However, in east TX and OK, we do see heavier rains in the short term with 3 systems between now and the 19th. This will help east and southeast HRW areas.
SRW areas continue to be divided north from south. Northern areas see combined 10 day rains from a tenth to half an inch. Southern SRW areas will be more in the half to 2 inch range. Temps above normal this week. Near normal next week, below normal after the 19th.
Ukraine sees 10 day rain totals from half to 1 inch. Farther east, other parts of Western Russia and FSU areas are seeing lesser amounts. The totals are similar to what we saw yesterday, but we are seeing rains hold together better coming out of Eastern Europe as they come into Ukraine. This gradual shift in pattern should bring slightly better rains eventually into Russian growing regions, but for now, we keep them drier at half an inch or less for the entire 10 day period. Kazakhstan also looks to stay dry, especially in the west. Temps well above normal.
In Australia, models suggest slightly better rains in Western Australia, but lesser rains in NSW over the 10 day period. In general, the changes are not enough for us to change our forecast, and the trend is still drier than we would like as we move toward planting in a few weeks.
Normal to above normal temps for most cattle areas this week and next Heavy rains miss beef production areas in the central plains, but may impact feedyards in east Texas. Dairy areas stay dry, but warmer than normal.
No major issues in hog areas, although we will see more moisture over OH valley areas in the next 10 days. Large snow melt equals mud…but not enough to make major headlines, as the bulk of hog areas had been drier than normal going into the heavy snows, and the soil profile will soak up moisture readily.