Snow moved across the state yesterday as anticipated. Now, we gear up for the mess coming at us tomorrow.
When we say mess this morning, it does not mean anything like what we would have meant when talking about this mess the last part of last week. Back then, models were just pounding our region with moisture…liquid totals well over 1 inch. Over the weekend, we saw that moisture go away. Quickly. Now, we are looking at a strong low passing mostly to the south, and very little available moisture will be over most of the state. Here is the break down:
Tomorrow we see moisture sliding in over northern IL, MI and the northern tier counties of Indiana. Cold air is still in play at that time. So, we anticipate some snow over far northern IN. Up near the Michigan line, we can see a couple of inches. Down near US 30 a coating to an inch. South of there, basically nothing. As the day wears on, temps rise, and we can see some light rains across the state. However, available moisture is down to a few hundredths to a tenth or two…so even rains are going to be uninspiring. Action leaves with just about as little fanfare…pushing off over OH as we move closer to Wednesday morning. Now, as the strong low passes south of the OH River Wednesday, we will have to keep an eye out for some snow, especially as colder air blasts in from the north. Some models are putting a foot of snow in over parts of KY and moderate snow in over IN counties bordering the River. But…we think that is probably a little over done. In any case, we will keep some minor snows in the forecast for areas from Cincinnati to Louisville to Evansville in that time frame.
Cold air blasts in behind this system and we are looking at another 3 day stretch at least of temps well below normal. Keep in mind that normals are starting to move upwards a little faster now, so we are not talking about temps that are completely equal with last week…but still well below normal. We will also be dry, with strong high pressure over the region to finish the week, and no serious precipitation threats through the weekend and even through early next week.
Temps warm toward midweek next week, and try to stay above normal through the 15th. However, that will lead to a strong low coming in from the NW for the 16th-17th, brining rain, perhaps a thunderstorm, and then a return to below normal temps immediately following. Rain totals will be up to half an inch, coverage at 70%.
Moisture surprisingly expanded over the weekend and we may have some showers and storms to start this week today over Buenos Aires province. That will be a good thing, as the region is a bit dry. Showers ands storms hold over the northern half of the country through mid week. Then drier air moves in late this week and continues through the weekend. Next week also looks to have a lack of overall moisture, but the high pressure domes are not nearly as strong as had been indicated, which may mean we are not looking at quite as moderate of an air mass. Temps likely will move closer to normal for the period.
Not a lot happening in southern Brazil corn areas this week, but we see a strong front sweeping through from northern RGDS through Sao Paulo from late Saturday through early next week. That front should bring 1-2 inches at least. From now through the weekend, scattered showers and storms dance around but mostly miss south and southeast Brazil, staying in Uruguay, Paraguay and northern Argentina.
A strong low moves out of the southern plains early this week but will miss a large part of the US Corn Belt. Moisture will be at its best on Tuesday and Wednesday, but liquid equivalents will be only from .1” to .3”, and coverage will be at 50% or less of the entire Corn Belt. Warm air surges in on Tuesday, only to be swept out by the cold front Tuesday night and Wednesday. This week will be mostly below normal. Next week, though, we see temps moderate to normal or even above normal by midweek, and that holds through the weekend. A strong front sweeps through to start the following week, rains up to half an inch.
The weather pattern that we had to finish last week is very similar to what we see this week over Brazil soybean areas. In fact, we see the same hit and miss moisture for today tomorrow and Thursday, with coverage only at about 50%. We see some stronger action coming through Matto Grosso do Sul up through Matto Grosso on Wednesday and Friday. A strong front coming out of southeast Brazil this weekend will throw better rains into the eastern part of the soy belt next week, from Goais east. Rain totals there can be 1-2 inches or more. But, lesser amounts will be farther west. In general, we see 10 day totals of at least a couple of inches over most of Brazil’s soy bean growing region. This may lead to less 2nd crop corn, considering the deadline to get it in in places like Matto Grosso was last Friday…and we were behind then.
HRW areas saw weekend snows hit the 2-5 inch range over the eastern half of the central plains, but much lower amounts back west. The upcoming period shows very little moisture after a final low moves out of the region late tonight through tomorrow. That low can trigger some rains or snows, but will be seeing minor coverage. Temps moderate later this week and next. But we see another major cool down for the 17th
SRW areas along or south of the OH River can see some significant snows from Tuesday night into and through Wednesday. But the rest of SRW will see the next round of precipitation Tuesday have at least some rain. However, the latest models have really backed off the moisture availability, which means we see at most a tenth or two over the region. Then dry to finish the week and start next week. Temps moderate dramatically at midweek next week too, but we likely move through a drier period from midweek this week to mid month.
Two fronts in the next 10 days move out of Eastern Europe and into Ukraine. They do not have the best moisture potential, but it is some moisture…combined up to half an inch. But, these fronts seem to die when the reach western Russia and other FSU areas, leaving Russian wheat in a dry hole again. Temps are still mostly above normal this week, but we are seeing some cooling from western Kazakhstan up through the Volga region.