Two days of wet weather will move over the Hoosier state today and tomorrow. Moisture started to push in to western Indiana overnight, and it will continue to spread east and north as the day progresses. Today’s moisture is a result of a low that is moving across IL toward Chicago. Moisture tomorrow will come with a second low moving up a cold front that will bring cold air to most of the state. That low will focus more on the southern half to third of Indiana. Today, the action will have a slight northern bias, with the best rains over the northern part of the state to just south of Indianapolis. We look for .25” to .6” totals. Tomorrows rains will be the best over the southern third of the state, with totals of half to 1.25”, and locally heavier amounts. Do not be surprised to hear a few rumbles of thunder today or tomorrow, as this will be the first major warm air vs. cold air front we see of this spring. Thunderstorms are not likely to numerous or wide spread, but they can be around. Two day totals for the entire state will range from .4” to 1.25” with coverage at 90%.
Gear up for a major temperature swing with this event. Today, in the warm sector, temps torch higher, pushing upper 50s and mid 60s state wide. Temps crash tomorrow as cold air comes in, and temps Friday can be as cold or colder than what we saw to start the week on Monday. The coldest air likely holds 2 days, through Saturday, before we see temps slightly moderate for Sunday.
We still see a nice April fools day system for next Wednesday into Thursday. Moisture looks to be around .3”-.6” with coverage at 70% of the state. This front will bring cooler air in again. But, we now feel that next week’s cold push will not rival what we see this Friday…and temps will not be as dramatically cold next week. However, do not let that fool you…we will continue to be well below normal.
Our Easter weekend system seems to want to delay ever so slightly, bringing the bulk of its moisture in now for Monday the 6th and Tuesday the 7th. That moisture does still look formidable. Now, we like the moisture and a solution that has a system in that time frame…but we don’t like the model that is showing it…and will jump on board the timing and scope for that system a little more when we get some additional model consensus. Either way, we look for below normal temps through at least April 10th, then a move toward normal with a more active precipitation pattern for mid April.
Rain moved into the Corn Belt yesterday and continues its push north and east today. Another wave comes in tomorrow over the southern corn belt. All told rains will be in the half to 1.5” range, coverage 80% of the Corn Belt, with the upper Midwest missing out. Colder air comes in for the finish of the week and start of the weekend. Temps moderate to finish the weekend but stay below normal. Rains arrive again for Wednesday-Thursday next week, likely in the .25”-1” range, coverage 60%. Potentially heavy rains for the week after Easter…but models have been flip flopping some on timing…anywhere from the 6th to the 8th, Timing aside…temps stay below normal easily through that entire week.
Nothing more than scattered showers and thunderstorms today, and that action is dwindling. WE should see a mostly dry finish to the week and a dry weekend. Models continue to show a few showers coming back into western and extreme northern areas of Argentina corn country early next week. It stays drier to the south. Temps normal to above normal.
Dry with nothing more than scattered shower and thunderstorms in southern Brazil to finish the week, but at least 2 strong fronts move through starting next week. The first one hits early in the week as heavy rain pushes out of Paraguay and northern Argentina. We still like rain totals of 1-2” and coverage of 90% for Monday and Tuesday. That moisture looks to have its best intensity from RGDS up through Paraná, and lesser intensity back west. The second wave comes through Wednesday Thursday, and will be focused farther west, with 1-2 inch rains again possible, more so in Matto Grosso do Sul. Another front looks to work in around the end of Easter weekend.
Good moisture is still on track for the northern half of the Corn Belt with a weak system moving across northern areas early next week brining half to three quarters of an inch of rain. Then we still see a second, stronger, larger system for late next week that brings Rain potential there could be up to an inch. .
We have about 5-6 more days of drier weather in the Lower Delta and Deep South before heavy rains return. Starting at midweek next week, we see a strong low move up along the gulf coast and eventually onshore that will bring at least 1-2 inches of rain, perhaps more as it moves from LA to the Carolinas. Temps normal to below through the period
Scattered moisture in Brazil bean areas is not really frontal related…so there is a large hit and miss component to this moisture. We continue to roll with 1-2 inch totals combined over the next 10 days, with ample windows for field work. Complaints about being too dry have to be limited to very localized areas at this point.
A little scattered moisture this morning over north central KS, south central NE and into NE CO…but it will not be anything long term. We will see some moisture come out of central/eastern OK later today that can trigger some thunderstorms. Generally, this will be the last batch of moisture until mid week next week, when a low moving through the Dakotas may spur a cold front to pass through the rest of wheat country. That front has its best moisture from I-80 northward, but areas south of there still have a chance at a line of thunderstorms for Wednesday-Thursday. We like rains of .25”-1.25” from I-80 northward with 60% coverage, and half an inch or less south of 80 with 40% coverage. We can see another rain maker in the Dakotas for Easter weekend, and then in the southern plains for the 6th. The big question will surround the central plains…can any good moisture get going in there? Right now, chances appear low…and if moisture does pop up…it will have dismal coverage…much like we have seen over the past 36 hours. No one can look at what has transpired over KS/NE/northern OK in the past day and a half and honestly say is been helpful to a majority of the region…its only been helpful to a few spots.
One nice batch of rain traversed SRW areas yesterday through this morning, and we have another wave to come through tonight and tomorrow. Total rains will be in the half to 1.5” range. Cold air races in this weekend. More moisture at midweek next week is helpful, but not excessive. Temps stay cool through Easter weekend at least. Models are split as to how big a post Easter system is, and there still is major disagreement on timing.
Western Russia/Eastern Europe still picks up good moisture (up to an inch) over the next 10 days…but farther east, the Volga region, parts of the Central Region and Kazakhstan are left wanting. Temps remain above normal through the end of the month at least.
No change in the good rain potential in Western Australia. Models have actually increased the intensity of the moisture in the system for next week. We will leave our forecast at half to 3 inches…but prefer more of the region in the middle of that range at 1-2 inches or so. Strong central high pressure keeps good action out of South Australia and NSW wheat areas…but there is at least minor shower action expected in Victoria and NSW off an on over the next 10 days…so it will not be a complete dry period. Temps remain warm, except in Western Australia next week when the heavier rains come…that should lead to a period of 3-4 days with slightly below normal temps.
A lot of dryness in cattle areas in the weeks ahead. Systems seem to stay either east of major beef feedlot areas in the central plains or south of the big dairy areas of the Upper Midwest. WE may hear some concerns over the start to the hay season in some of these areas. Big temp swings are coming for dairy areas in the north…with well below normal temps likely on several occasions through at least the 8th. Well above normal temps in beef production areas continue.
Some large scale rains in North Carolina will bring 2-3 inches of rain or more to Hog production areas in that part of the country next week. General sloppiness will ensue, but the rains should not have a major impact outside of localized flooding.