Colder air pushes into the state today. There will still be some rain around over the southern part of the state through the day today, and that moisture may push farther north over east central parts of the state. Rain totals will be .2”-.7” over most areas, but can push closer to 1 inch near the river.
Temps will be below normal over the entire state though Saturday before temperatures bounce a bit later Sunday. However, temps still look to be below normal through most of next week.
Models have introduced a new little wrinkle in the forecast pattern for late Sunday night through early Monday, bringing minor moisture in with a quick moving clipper front. The moisture is not overly impressive…a few hundredths to a tenth or two. However, with the timing being overnight, and the region just starting to bounce out of the cold air mass that started the weekend…we will want to keep a close eye on precipitation type. Right now we look for rain…but we will monitor the temps closely for a slight downward surprise that may trigger some wet snow.
The next big frontal passage is at midweek, with a system for the 1st and 2nd. Some models are trying to hold on to moisture with a secondary wave for the 3rd. If that works out that way, we could be looking at a soggy finish to the week. As it stands right now, our forecast continues to call for .3”-.6” rains at midweek with coverage at 65% of the state. If there is some lingering moisture into the third…totals could be pushed toward 1 inch. We want to see some confirming model runs before trending our forecast that way. Temps cool off again behind that frontal system.
Moisture is still a possibility for Easter Sunday, with the GFS leaning that way, and other models pushing the system back into early the following week. Either way, there will be some moisture around for the first full week of April. The main takeaway from the forecast this morning is that after a somewhat dry March…April will kick off with some slightly better moisture potential. The key will be how the month finishes (and right now, we are still leaning dry)