March may finish like a lamb after all. High pressure is in today, and while we do have a little precipitation that may try and fire off overnight tonight through tomorrow, amounts will be relatively small, and the way it comes through will be low key. However, we are embarking on a slightly damp start to April, with moisture tonight and tomorrow, then another system for Thursday-Friday, and then one for Monday Tuesday of next week. Then in the extended period, we have one for the 9th-10th, the 12th, and the 14th. None of the systems look to be too over the top, with mostly a quarter inch or less, although the GFS model brings slightly bigger moisture potential in for the extended period, as is its bias. Here is how it all breaks down.
Today should feature good sun with temps finally working back to within a few degrees of normal. However…we do not expect above normal temps. Precipitation overnight tonight through tomorrow will be mostly .05”-.2” with coverage at 40%, mostly north of I-70. The southern half of Indiana stays dry, as this is an off shoot of a low that is passing over the Great Lakes.
Dry Wednesday and the first part of Thursday. A front passes late Thursday through Friday that brings .1” to .9”. Coverage will be nearly 90% across the state, but we will skew the higher end of the range of precipitation to the far southern extent of the state…most of the state will likely end up with just a few tenths, if that. Temps fall off with that front, as we look for Easter weekend to start well below normal, perhaps even finishing there. However…Easter Sunday should be dry, and at least partly sunny.
We can see another .1” to .6” over the state with about 50% coverage from late Monday night (6th) through Tuesday. This time, a bit portion of central Indiana may be on the outside looking in, with the better precipitation well north and well south. Temps continue to be within a few degrees of normal, but mostly to the below normal side.
In the extended period, we have the GFS model brining half to 1 inch rains for the 9th and 10th, third to half inch rains for the 12th, and quarter to half inch rains for the 14th. Our thought is that these rains are about 2x to big at this point…as this model usually way overstates rain potential in the extended period. However, on the timing, the system for the 9th and 10th looks good to us…with lesser confidence in the two others. We also look for the pattern to go much drier in and around this time frame…with a below normal precipitation bias through the rest of the month. Also…keep in mind that with our current forecast through the 14th…we are not really going to be racking up the big rain totals…a large part of the state may make it to the 15th with .75” or less of total moisture for the month. That is the stat we will be watching closely.
While we look for a general below normal bias on temps…we think the extreme cold pushes will be limited to what we see late this week going into Easter weekend…and even those should not be as cold as what we saw this past Friday and Saturday. The sun angle is just getting to strong to support those kinds of temps. Overnight lows will be low enough, though, to keep soil temps from running up to fast.
The Corn Belt will see slightly better temperatures over the next two weeks than what we saw as we finished out last week. OK…that is an understatement…we will see much better temps over the Corn Belt than what we saw last Friday and Saturday. However…most of the region east of the Mississippi River will be normal to below normal for the coming two weeks, while areas west of the Mississippi will be normal to above normal. The next (and hopefully last) push of very cold air comes as we finish their week, with temps Thursday, Friday and Saturday going below normal (although we are not looking at all 3 days below normal…just a progression of the cold air from NW to SE over those days). The extended period is shown to be fairly wet, although we think the model that is showing that is likely well over done. Right now, we like a snapshot of the first half of the month that may end up with most areas under .75” total (through the 15th), and then a potential drier push after that. Temps, though, still stay mostly normal to below.
Slightly drier weather over the next 10 days in Argentina. A couple of weak fronts bring rains up to half an inch total (for the period) across all key crop areas. Heavy rains will stay well west near the mountains. This drying forecast still has enough moisture to finish crops off, but will the kind of forecast that truly helps increase talk of bigger crops in Argentina.
Southern Brazil sees a little bit of a discrepancy from south to north over the next 10 days. RGDS gets some rain, but has a wide range, from .25” 10 day totals up to nearly 2”. From Santa Catarina up through Paraná, we see rains of 1-2 inches. In Sao Paulo…we can see some 3 inch rain totals combined for the period. This means there is plenty of moisture around…but…it only comes in 2 waves…today through tomorrow, and then from Saturday through next Monday. The rest of the period will be drier.
Rains just keep coming in south China. We likely will see headlines of major flooding in China over the days ahead, with some models showing 15 inches of rain or more in come of the central provinces. A few of these are also in the southern part of the main grain areas, like Hubei and Anhui…but in general, most of the ag areas sig more in the 1-2 inch rain totals. Far north wheat areas get 10 day totals of .25”-1”. This moisture will continue to be well received…although the massive rains just south of the corn and bean areas will be what everyone talks about.
Three quick moving systems move through the Deep South and Lower Delta this week, each bringing .25” to 1” rain potential, then next week a slower moving, stronger system can bring 1-2 inch rain potential. Combined, it looks like we have plenty of moisture that will likely slow planting progress again over the region, although there will be some windows of opportunity this week for some. Coverage this week is likely 70%, next week will be 90%.
Two frontal systems work through Brazil bean areas in the next 10 days, bringing half to 1.5” rains. Heat based rains are still a possibility in between systems, as scattered showers and thunderstorms pop up in the afternoon…but they are becoming less frequent over the region. Temps nearly normal.
For HRW, rains in TX-OK Wednesday of this week will be in the .25”-.75” range, coverage at 50%…mostly skewed to the central and eastern parts of the states. Thursday, a very strong front sweeps through the plains and will put rains up to 1.5” in over eastern NE and eastern KS. However, western parts of the plains see no rain from that event. Mostly dry then through the end of next week. A front toys with the region around the 9th, but mostly misses, and a similar pattern is likely for the 12th.
Good moisture around over SRW areas through the next 2 weeks. There will be more action in southern areas than north, but everyone gets rains. Systems this week come through tonight/tomorrow morning in the north, Thursday-Friday region wide, Monday night-Tuesday next week region wide, and then potential events for the 9th-10th, 12th, and 14th. Total moisture can be in the half to 1.5” range, although we expect the lower end of the range in most areas, and the upper end only in areas closer to and south of the OH River.
The weather pattern continues to show good frontal action coming out of Eastern Europe. We have 10 day rain totals up to 1.5” over most of western FSU countries, including Ukraine, as at least 2-3 fronts move in between now and the 8th. Farther east, though, the moisture diminishes quickly…with the central region looking at only 50% coverage of rains over 1.2” and the southern region only 30% covered. The Volga region and Kazakhstan both see moisture under a quarter of an inch for the full 10 day period.
Rains start tonight in Western Australia, and then models continue to add rains over the next 10 days there. Better rains don’t start to pick up over eastern wheat areas in NSW and Victoria until this weekend, and we only see scattered showers in between over South Australia this week too. However, next week, more rains in all locations, meaning we can see 10 day totals of 1-3 inches over wheat areas in Western Australia, NSW and Victoria, and .25”-1” totals over South Australia wheat areas.