The only change in the forecast over the past 24 hours has to do with how much moisture potential comes out of the systems as we move from now through mid April. We continue to see some minor action exiting the region here this morning, but the better systems are still on the way. We continue to see little to no precipitation from this afternoon through tomorrow and early Thursday.
Our next front passes late Thursday through Friday. We still have that front bringing .2” to .9” of rain, but we may be able to bring that lower end of the range up a bit. The latest European model is allowing the precipitation to linger longer through Friday, and is bringing a second low up the front Friday that can move the heavier rain out of just southern Indiana up into central and northeastern parts of the state. For now, we will leave our range alone, but may tweak it upwards tomorrow morning if we get confirming model runs. We still like coverage at nearly 90% across the state. Cooler air comes in behind that front and will be in for Easter weekend.
Scattered showers develop overnight Monday night into Tuesday, but will be limited to a few hundredths to a tenth or two with coverage at 40%. But, a better organized low sweeps through Tuesday night through Wednesday that can bring .2”-.6” rain totals with coverage at 60%. A change in the models this morning then keeps rain going through Thursday and Friday (9th and 10th), melding the two systems from the European and GFS models. Right now we think that the models may be over doing it somewhat, brining another quarter to three quarters of an inch of rain in for that Thursday and Friday…but we can see validity to the wetter solution at least in terms of the rain potential each day.
The extended period brings another batch of moisture still for the 12th and the 14th-15th as well. Our concern that the moisture for the first half of the month might be wimpy, failing to add up to .75” looks unfounded right now…but so far, near by moisture has been underwhelming too…so we really want to see this atmosphere moisten up before we get to giddy about moisture coming in. The first true test may be what happens later this week for Thursday and Friday. We will bring updates as needed.
Temps still look to be normal to below normal through at least the first half of April…and likely below normal for the entire month as well. We see nothing in the current pattern that supports a major warm up outside of a day or two here and there that might sneak a bit above normal.