Its north vs. south today. In the north, we are basically done with major precipitation, and will begin a journey into a 7-10 day dry period. In the south, we have the rest of a winter storm coming through. Up north, boring and very cold. South, cold, and not so boring.
A strong low will move northeast, but stay south of the OH River through the day today. There is plentiful moisture in this system. This morning, temps will be above freezing in most of the precipitation area, but between 32 and 35 from US 50 to the river. This means, while it is warm enough for precipitation to be liquid at the surface, it is still pretty cold not to far up in the atmosphere, and therefore, we are still projecting big, sloppy, wet snowflakes to be in over the region. The wetter the snow, the harder of time it will have accumulating, but it will accumulate. Rain will mix in from time to time. As cold air pushes south over the state, the wet snow will become heavier and less rain will mix in. Moisture potential is well over an inch of liquid…and models are saying there could be some serious snow accumulation with the storm. Most of the heaviest snows stay south of the River…but the European model does put some heavy snows in the southern most line of counties that fall along the river. So, be aware. This could be a big, sloppy, accumulating snow mess. And, keep your fingers crossed…if warm air can surge just a few more miles north…we could easily keep this thing all rain. That is the problem with systems like this…there is a very fine, sharp line between mostly rain and heavy, heavy snow. Northern Indiana saw it like this a month ago. Now its southern Indiana’s turn.
Behind this, we dry out over all areas to finish the week. Very cold air, brutally cold air, holds through tomorrow. And then temps moderate to finish the week. We will do no better than the teens and 20s tomorrow, but will be near normal by the weekend, and then by midweek next week we will be above normal. We can honestly say, that after tomorrow, we should not see temps to that level again.
Above normal temps hold through the 17th. But, a strong upper level trough will bring in cold Canadian air again for the 18th-20th, and will likely kick off a period with below normal temps (not nearly like we are seeing today and tomorrow) for the rest of march, with an active precipitation pattern. So, enjoy a glimpse spring…it may be only that…a glimpse.
Moisture is basically done this morning over Argentina. A much drier pattern moves in now for the next 10 days. Rains will be limited to the fart northern part of the country, mostly out of key ag areas. Temps will be nearly normal. Next chance of rain pushes into southern Buenos Aires province around the 12th.
South and southeast Brazil corn areas are mostly impacted by scattered showers now through the weekend, but we do see two instances of slightly better intensity and frequency in that period, the first tomorrow afternoon and the second for Sunday. Then next week we see a slow moving front park over the northern half of southern Brazil, over from Paraná and Matto Grosso do Sul up through Sao Paulo. This front will be tied to a strong storm circulation that sits just of the Santa Catarina coast through the week. This will promote heavier rains in these areas. All told, we see half to 1.5” rains over RGDS, and then the rest of southeast Brazil and Matto Grosso look for 10 day totals to be around 1-3 inches. Temps nearly normal to a bit above normal
A system kicks out of the central plains today, but heads across the lower MO valley and into the OH valley. This will miss 80% of the US Corn Belt. Bitter cold air comes in today and tomorrow over the Corn Belt, and then we moderate toward the weekend. Next week will be normal to above normal for temps, a pattern that continues to the 17th. Much colder air comes in for the 18th and beyond…but that cold air will not equal what we are dealing with today and tomorrow. In fact, we believe that the cold air of today and tomorrow is the last cold air of this magnitude over the Corn Belt for the season.
Nothing more than scattered action over Brazil bean areas through the weekend. The scattered showers and storms mostly stay under an inch for the 5 day period combined. However, a slow moving front works through bean areas next week and may promote heavier, slower moving rains. That makes next weeks rain potential half to 1.5”, but coverage can be up to 80%. Heavier rains will stay to the south and east. Temps normal to slightly above on average through the period.
Some moisture around this morning over southern KS and Northern OK as another low kicks out…but the actual moisture available is very minor. We remain cold today over the HRW belt, but we start to warm significantly tomorrow and Friday. From this weekend through the next week at least we will be above normal. However, we stay dry through the next 10 days as well. Colder still is on the way after the 18th, but will not equal what we see here today.
Heavy snows are pounding southern SRW areas today. Potential for a foot or more sits over the OH River and back into the Boot heel of MO. However, just a slightly stronger push of warm air will switch more of the precipitation to rain. In any case, liquid availability over the southern SRW region is fantastic over the next 24 hours. Farther north, it is very cold today and tomorrow, but we are now dry through the end of next week. Temps warm considerably next week.
The 10 day precip map continues to paint an ominous picture, with very little moisture over a .2” combined for the period in most key grain areas. We do see slightly better rains up to an inch over the western half to third of Ukraine for the 10 day period, and some of those rains work farther north into western Russia…however, those Russian locations are generally not big ag regions.
Australia will be kicking planting into high gear in about 4 weeks. Right now, wheat areas look a little dry, and we see general high pressure in control. There is a little front that tries to work into Victoria and southern NSW later next week, but in general, we need strong high pressure slide off to the south a little bit to allow stronger fronts into wheat areas. The 10 day precipitation map shows mostly a continuation of the dry pattern in wheat areas.
Cold air will be a big story for about 2 more days both for beef production areas and big dairy areas. However, from here we do see some moderation to finish the week and for next week. A big cool down is likely after the 17th-18th…but it will not be as extreme. Weather over the next few weeks should have less of an impact on rates of gain and milk production.
Bitter cold air for another few days, but generally speaking, we see little impact on Hog production by the weather in the coming weeks. There can be some transportation issues for a few days along and south of the OH valley as today’s snow event hammers those areas, but the areas with the highest concentration of hog production should not see significant weather related issues.