INDIANA WEATHER OUTLOOK:
One last day of cold air today and then things take a dramatic turn for the better.
We are waking up to snows left from yesterday’s system passing by along the OH River. Snows made it a little farther north in southern Indiana thanks to the track of the low, but in general, the heavy snows were along the River and down into KY. Today, the cold arctic air that began pushing in yesterday and turned rains to snow will sit solidly over the region. Look for temps to be a good 20-25 degrees below normal over most of the state.
Tomorrow, winds turn south around the backside of the arctic high as it moves off to the east. This will allow for warmer air to start to move in. With the amount of snow across the state, we expect this warmer air to produce decent fog at some point, but tomorrow morning will be ok. Fog is most likely Saturday morning and Sunday morning as we really start to take temps back to normal, which is well above the freezing mark. Warm temps expand through next week too.
Next week continues to look mostly dry, with high pressure dominating underneath zonal flow first, and then an expanding ridge the second half of the week. Models have tried to make some changes in the extended period, with some good moisture surging north into the state from the south late next Friday into Saturday. Models disagree on how strong the moisture flow will be…with some saying up to three quarters of an inch over 70% of the state, and others saying more like a quarter of an inch. Either way, it is a bit sooner than previous model runs had been looking for.
The American model (GFS) is more active with a strong cold air push behind that system for the 15th-16th and beyond. It is aggressive in digging the cold air into the southern plains and Deep South, and has colder air than other models. However, we still think we don’t quite reach the magnitude of what we are working through today…temps out of that next cold air push should only be 10-15 degrees below normal…and by then we should have added another couple of degrees on to our normal highs.
Dry high pressure is in play now over most of Argentina. Temps nearly normal. No frontal boundary activity until we get closer to the end of next week.
Significant moisture will pop up each afternoon now through the weekend in southeast Brazil, initially from northern RGDS up through Sao Paulo, but by late in the weekend it will have expanded west to include Matto Grosso do Sul. Through the next 4 days, rains in this region can be between half and 2 inches. A strong low then develops early nest week off the Santa Catarina Coast, and will throw more moisture in, but it will be farther north, from Parana through Sao Paulo, and up into southern Minas Gerais through late Tuesday. Then, from midweek through the following weekend, south and southeast Brazil should be mostly dry. Temps normal to slightly above.
Dry with moderating temps over most of the US Corn Belt from here through most of next week. The next system to work into the Corn Belt will be a surge of moisture out of the Deep South late next Friday into Saturday, which comes into the eastern Corn Belt. Much colder air comes in behind that system, but models are split as to the timing…the US model brings it sooner and colder, the international models not as cold, but for a longer duration.
Initially Brazil soybean areas will see nothing more than hit and miss showers through this weekend. But, the strong low that spins off the Santa Catarina coast next week will drive a slow moving front through soybean areas from late Monday through Thursday. Rains in that time frame range from half to 3 inches, coverage at around 80%. Late in the week next week the scattered moisture should be north of the region, and most bean areas will be drier again, allowing for harvest to pick back up. Temps for the next 10 days generally look to be around normal. IF we had to skew them, we would put the northern half of Brazil crop areas at normal to slightly above, and southern areas mostly a bit below normal.
Dry and warmer through next week. A little more snow yesterday over east and southeast KS along with OK and north TX. But, it will melt quickly, and we look for mostly above normal temps through next week. Colder air looks a little more impressive for next weekend and into the following week, but moisture does not seem to want to accompany the colder surge just yet. We think the moisture is there, but it will take a better developed front to produce useable rains.
Lots of snow melt over SRW areas over the next 5-7 days. Melt will start slow. Today it will be very cold over the entire SRW region, with temps building to near normal over the weekend. The best warmth comes next week. Heavy rains are possible toward the end of next week. .
No change in Russia and FSU areas. Yesterday we saw better rains developing in eastern Ukraine…and models still show that today. However the 10 day precipitation map also shows a big hold remaining over the heart of Russian production areas and Kazakhstan. So, there is no reason to remove concern from our minds over Russian wheat. Temps are nearly normal now, and look to cool in the week ahead.
Australia’s short term pattern continues to be dry, and we still see a strong blocking high keeping most moisture at bay through at least midweek next week. Systems after that will generally be mostly south over southern Victoria…missing most of the biggest wheat areas.
Cold air will be a big story for about 2 more days both for beef production areas and big dairy areas. However, from here we do see some moderation to finish the week and for next week. A big cool down is likely after the 17th-18th…but it will not be as extreme. Weather over the next few weeks should have less of an impact on rates of gain and milk production.
Bitter cold air for another few days, but generally speaking, we see little impact on Hog production by the weather in the coming weeks. There can be some transportation issues for a few days along and south of the OH valley as today’s snow event hammers those areas, but the areas with the highest concentration of hog production should not see significant weather related issues.