A nice line of showers and thunderstorms has worked over some of the western Corn Belt so far this morning and will continue to move east. The front that holds back the biggest air mass change is just now clearing the upper Mississippi valley, so it looks like there can be two batches of moisture…one well in advance of the front and then the stormier one along the front itself. We actually think they can be yet another push of moisture behind the front or along the front tomorrow, as low pressure lifts up out of the central plains and lower Mississippi Valley. Either way, it adds up to rain to finish the week. After a mostly dry weekend, a wet pattern is in again next week for most of the Corn Belt with rains from late Monday through Friday. And the week after next we see another larger scale system in for the 14th-16th. Temps will move from normal and above normal levels today back to normal and below normal levels behind the front and through most of next week.
Two fronts in Argentina in the next 10 days. One hits the first part of next week, and the other late in the weekend. The first will be mostly a central and south event, skewing the bulk of its moisture over the western half to third of corn growing regions. The second is more of a northern event, and brings decent rains to about the northern half of the corn region. All told, we look for the rains from half to 1.5” with coverage at 60% of the grain regions…east and south areas will be most likely to be missed (like Buenos Aires state…it may not get much moisture at all).
Fewer fronts over Brazil on the whole over the next two weeks, and in the south and southeast, we likely will see many more dry days than wet. Systems will be limited to This Sunday into early Monday and then again for the 11th-12th. We can see up to an inch of moisture, but coverage at only 50% of the region. The rest of the period will be warm and dry.
The heaviest rain in China is shifting farther south. South china will continue to battle way to much water in the 10 day period…but we do not have much concern over excessive moisture in corn and bean growing areas. Most of china’s growing regions will see half to 1.25” rains combined between now and the 12th.
Scattered showers over the Deep South and lower delta today and tomorrow, with a frontal passage finally coming early Saturday that brings a period of more organized rains. Another batch of rain moves through the lower Mississippi valley from late Sunday night through Monday. Scattered action Tuesday and Wednesday coalesces into a bigger rain maker for the last part of next week. All told, we can see 10 day rain totals of 1-2 inches with locally higher amounts.
Some scattered action in Brazil over the next two weeks, but organized frontal action will be limited. We do see a system this weekend in southern Brazil, but Harvest is mostly complete in these areas. Rain is likely not a big issue at this time.
The best rains from the frontal passage were just outside of the HRW belt as expected, although we did see some severe thunderstorm action fire off in central KS and move east with the front. However, looking for good coverage rains out of severe weather events in Kansas is like trying to find a non airbrushed picture in the swimsuit edition….its just not going to happen. Anyway…we still have an expectation of moisture coming together over northern CO later today and then ejecting out over KS and southern NE through tomorrow, but amounts continue to be very minor…under a quarter of an inch in most locations. The HRW belt is going to have to puts its eggs in one basket for the 12th-14th if the crop is to be salvaged. A system looks to come together in the western high plains with a double barreled low running from SD to the TX panhandle. This would trigger good rains in the half to 1.5” range. There is still plenty of time to change…but this is the best looking system we have seen in a while, and if it falls apart…we don’t like our chances going forward.
The two systems mentioned in the Corn Belt section will bring good moisture to SRW areas. Colder air is on the way, but should not be a major issue to wheat at this point in time.
Reports of good rains in the past few days in Ukraine go along with a forecast pattern that keeps .75”-1.5 inch rain totals in for the next 10 days as well. And those projected rains move over other western FSU nations. Russia picks up moisture in the west, but central and eastern grain areas will be left wanting.
As we were hoping for, the pattern is reloading in Australia, with another frontal boundary coming into Western Australia toward the end of the 10 day period. Rains continue to be on target over NSW and Victoria as well. 10 day totals have up to 2 inches in all wheat areas except for those strewn about South Australia…there we can see up to half an inch.