We embark on a somewhat soggy week this week, although models still are in some disagreement as to how soggy and where. If we broad brush the week, we still think that overall, we can see half to 1.25” rain totals from tomorrow through Friday with coverage at nearly 100% of the state. However, when you break it down on a day by day basis…the rains are less impressive, along with the coverage. Each little wave that comes through has the potential to have some heavier rains in it. Temperatures will be below normal, but not by a massive amount.
Today should be dry beginning to end over most of the state. We will likely see some clouds increase as the day wears on, especially in the south and western parts of the state. But, real rain should hold of until after midnight, starting in the far southwest part of the state. Winds were impressive over a large part of the state this weekend. As we see some stronger lows try and exit the plains this week, we see some potential for wind again, although the impressive warming gradient that fueled winds this weekend will NOT be an issue through the week…the systems are more stable in regard to temperature change.
Tomorrow’s rain will be most impressive during the day south of State Rd 26. The southernmost 60% of the state gets .25-.7” rain totals, while the northern 40% sees a few hundredths to a tenth. But, overnight tomorrow night into early Thursday, the heavier rains move north, such that between midnight and 6AM Wednesday, the northern 40% can pick up .2”-.6” rain totals. The rest of Wednesday will be damp, but without a lot of new moisture added…mainly a few hundredths.
Thursday and Friday look soggy with another wave moving through that triggers half to 1 inch rains. These will be basically statewide over the two day period, with the likelihood of heavy rain falling over central Indiana.
Next weekend will be mostly dry, but then we have another half to 1 inch potential rain maker coming for Monday the 13th, with complete statewide coverage once again. Finally we should dry down for Tuesday the 14th through the at least the 21st. Each system over the next 10 days opens the door to cooler air behind it…so we expect our temps to hold no better than normal, and have a cooler bias. Even the drier period to start the second half of the month looks to have no major warming coming with it, at least right away.