The first of two significant pushes of moisture comes today. Rain will overspread the state through the day, and we look for it to come in two pieces. The best rains through the daytime hours will be over the southern half of the state, while later tonight into early tomorrow morning we will see the better rains up north. All told, we like 24 hour rain totals of .2” to 1.1” with 100% coverage. We also will not rule out thunderstorm action in the south, and there is the potential (albeit small) for some stronger storms. Tomorrow should be mostly dry as the atmosphere reloads.
The next push of moisture comes Thursday into midday Friday. This wave looks more impressive in terms of available moisture, but the best moisture may rain in IL before it gets here. In any case, we look for another half to 1.5” of rain in the period with the heaviest (by far) in central to southern Indiana via the European, and other models say we can see another batch of heavier rain farther north (like the UKMET…pictured). In either case, rain coverage will be 80%.
The weekend is dry with strong high pressure in play. There should be plenty of sunshine with good evaporation starting of the extra moisture that is sure to be sitting around following the week’s rains. That will be helpful.
What will be unhelpful is yet another front for Monday into Tuesday of next week. This front looks strong, well organized, and it may trigger the first good strong to severe weather outbreak over a large part of the state. The southern half of the state will be in line for another big rain event with 1-2” or more possible on a line from Richmond to Louisville. Outside of that heavy rain band, we expect half to 1.25” rain totals. Coverage of the entire system will be 100% of the state.
We see the pattern attempting to dry out starting on the 14th, and we can go through at least the 21st/22nd with no major systems as the models sit now. The flow pattern goes more zonal, meaning we see good west to east flow, which will lend itself to less intense frontal development.