The pattern remains the same. We had rain break out yesterday over the state and strong to severe thunderstorms fired off over extreme southern Indiana late yesterday afternoon. While some thunderstorms are expected to linger and move into the state this morning and some of them might be severe, after they dissipate we should take a break in the action today for the rest of the day, even seeing some sunshine in parts of the state. Don’t get used to it…we are just reloading for tomorrow and Friday.
Rain moves in tomorrow and holds into Friday morning before shutting down. We remain steadfast with half to 1.5” rain totals. State wide coverage will be 90%.
We dry down from Friday midday and early afternoon through the weekend. Strong high pressure settles in and we should continue to see good evaporation through the weekend. Temperatures will be nearly normal, maybe skewed just a bit below normal behind the stormy frontal complex.
The next front arrives Monday and Tuesday and continues to look nice and strong. We could see another strong to severe storm outbreak Monday afternoon. Rain totals look to be in the half to 2 inch range state wide with the coverage at 100%. Models continue to show a band of heavier rain/storms over the southern half to third of the state.
Models went wetter yesterday for the extended period and have not deviated from that solution yet. Another system bringing half to 1 inch rains can move through for the 17th-19th, and then another system near 1 inch for the 22nd-23rd. Models hint at slightly less activity from the 24th-28th…but we would say don’t book that quite yet. However if a ridge starts to build back in over the plains and western US in that time frame, it could lead to more drying.