An historic report from USDA comes Tuesday morning. It’s the June crop production report and history will be made because the electronic grain trade will be open at the time the report is publicized. Analyst Tom Fritz at EFG based in Chicago says winter wheat will be where we see production numbers, and corn and soybean supply and demand numbers will be updated.
Fritz says the market could be looking at curve ball from USDA in the form of adjustments to acres or yield, “but normally on this report they do not and that’s just because we have our big acreage report at the end of the month on June 29th. But you never know. Last year they fooled with corn acres on this report. Some people are alluding to the idea they may fool with bean acres on this report because no one believes their bean acres they reported back at the end of March.”
Doug Werling at Bower Trading encourages farmers to be cautious in the immediate aftermath because trade could get excessively volatile.
“We get this 40 page report, so when you look at all these numbers take your time, look at them, calm down, come to the conclusion what you think you need to do and adjust accordingly. Don’t react to the way the market is gonna be, because I expect it to be very thin around that crop report number time, and you could see some pretty wild ranges.”
Werling thinks USDA just might adjust that corn yield number.
“Nobody is expecting USDA to lower the corn yield but they started high at 166, and I think there might be a chance with as dry as it has been and as abnormally dry of a season as we’ve had so far, maybe they’ll lower that a little bit. And that could be a surprise.”
HAT will post the pertinent numbers after the Tuesday USDA release at 8:30 AM Eastern.[audio:https://www.hoosieragtoday.com//wp-content/uploads//2012/06/USDA-June-thoughts.mp3|titles=USDA June thoughts]